EU: The 15% tariff cap will still apply to chips imported from the US. SHFE tin prices remain high and range-bound [SMM Tin Morning News]

August 8, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Briefing:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) opened higher in the night session and maintained a high-level consolidation, closing at 268,300 yuan/mt, up 0.29% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) According to Chengdu's official WeChat account on the evening of August 7, the 28th Chengdu International Auto Show will be held from August 29 to September 7, with the latest car consumption subsidy activities launched in Jinjiang District and Chenghua District. In Jinjiang District, subsidies of up to 4,500 yuan will be granted via UnionPay red packets for purchasing new passenger vehicles (including passenger NEVs and internal combustion engine vehicles) after meeting requirements and passing review. In Chenghua District, subsidies of up to 6,500 yuan will be provided for purchasing new passenger vehicles (including internal combustion engine vehicles and NEVs) from designated automakers after fulfilling conditions and approval. (2) The EU stated that even if President Trump announces new tariffs on semiconductors entering the US, the tariff ceiling for chip exports from the EU to the US will remain at 15%. EU spokesperson Olof Gill said on Thursday that Washington has committed to applying the 15% tariff ceiling to EU semiconductor exports regardless of tariffs imposed on other exporters. He added, "We expect the US to honor this commitment." (3) Tariffs—① Reciprocal tariffs officially take effect, with Trump stating billions will flow into the US. ② EU: 15% tariff ceiling still applies to chip exports to the US. ③ Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba: No divergence exists between Japan and the US, meaning no additional 15% tariff will be imposed on Japanese imports beyond existing rates. ④ The US has imposed tariff hikes on imported 1kg gold bars, potentially hitting Switzerland, the world's largest refining hub. (4) US Fed—① Trump nominated Stephen Milan, Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, as a Fed governor with a term until January 31, 2026. ② Christopher Waller reportedly emerged as a top contender for the next Fed Chairman. ③ US Treasury Secretary Besant: The interview process for the Fed Chairman has begun. ④ Bostic: The July jobs report did alter the Fed's perspective on employment goals.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply tightens in major production areas like Yunnan, with some smelters likely maintaining maintenance shutdowns or minor production cuts in August (Bullish★). (2) Demand side: PV sector—Orders for tin bars in east China declined post installation rush, with some producers reducing operating rates. Electronics sector—South China's electronic end-users entered the off-season, compounded by high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment and only essential orders. Other sectors—Demand remains stable in areas like tinplate and chemicals without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: Trading in the spot market remained mediocre yesterday, with most traders reporting that low-priced orders dominated the day, resulting in limited transactions and sales volumes falling short of a full truckload. Smelters generally exhibited low willingness to sell, awaiting more favorable selling opportunities.

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